Damn, damn, damn.
"So far, I've been manfully trying to give the administration the benefit of the doubt, especially given the media's relentlessly negative coverage of Iraq. But they're beginning to lose me, for the same reasons they're losing Dan Drezner. They don't seem to grasp the absolutely vital necessity of success in Iraq. And I can't believe I'm writing that sentence."
"Until the administration renews its commitment to a free and stable Iraq, things will fall apart."
"Let's face it: The war against radical Islam has bogged down. It cannot be unbogged until the U.S. regains the offensive."
Americans must understand how important this mission is and be prepared to sacrifice to achieve it. Without an intensive campaign now to explain what is at stake and absent the necessary political and financial commitment, we raise the potential for a defeat that will deal a lasting blow to American interests and freedom's progress.
"Anyway so my brother and father start talking to the medic and he tells them what this is about. They have been “informed” that there are daily meetings the last five days, Sudanese people come into our house at 9am and stay till 3pm, we are a probable Ansar cell. My father is totally baffled, my brother gets it. These are not Sudanese men they are from Basra the “informer” is stupid enough to forget that there is a sizeable population in Basra who are of African origin. And it is not meetings these 2 (yes only two) guys have here, they are carpenters and they were repairing my mom’s kitchen. Way. To. Go. You have great informers."
"The looting and killing of today has changed from the looting and killing in April. In April, it was quite random. Criminals were working alone. Now they’re more organized than the CPA (Coalition Provisional Authority) and the troops combined. No one works alone anymore- they’ve created gangs and armed militias. They pull up to houses in minivans and SUVs, armed with machineguns and sometimes grenades. They barge into the house and demand money and gold. If they don’t find enough, they abduct a child or female and ask for ransom. Sometimes the whole family is killed- sometimes only the male members of the family are killed."
"I have just enough faith in them
[the administration] to give them the benefit of the doubt, to believe that they are morally serious men and women, that they are aware that they are beginning a historical, once-in-a-century endeavor that has great potential to make a real, valuable contribution to the world, to change it in a way that will have beneficial repercussions for many decades to come.
This is, of course, a hope. There is also the possibility that we will go in, topple Hussein, and pull out after 18 months, leaving the country in chaos and at the mercy of its tribal past. That would be a tremendous mistake, and would certainly cost the administration my vote.
We'll see...we'll see."
Well, we're seeing, aren't we? I'm desperately trying to be patient, here. Remember, Nazi holdouts were still operating in Germany two years after Berlin fell...supposedly. At any rate, I don't think the Germans were as keen to blow up other Germans as the Iraqi resistance is to blow up Iraqis, and that's a problem.
It comes down to this: either the administration has a strategy that they're being typically closed-mouthed about, or they're flailing. If they're flailing, they won't return to office in 2004. If they're not flailing, then I'm just being impatient and wilting under the constant bombardment of maybe-so/maybe-not stories from nearly all corners of the Media.
You can only wait so long for the rabbit to pop out of the hat before you leave the tent to go get some popcorn.
What would solve the problem, assuming that there is one?
Crime rates are up. No surprise. The former government was a dictatorship, and before collapsing, let all the criminals it had in prison go free. You cannot compare the crime rates of a free country and a dictatorship, to begin with. Throw in the complete, and unexpected collapse, of both the army and the police force, and you have a situation that will take time to resolve.
Tens of thousands of Iraqi police are now on the street. More coming every day. Iraqis are assuming their proper roles in guarding their borders. The are beginning to assume control of various governmental ministries.
And, hey, while we're handing out blame for the assumed situation, let's not forget that it's Iraqis committing these crimes. They have to bear their share of responsibility for crime, and crime prevention. Iraqis did the looting. Maybe the media should point that out every time they write about some Iraqi bitching.
And we're still less than six months into the Liberation of Iraq. Since major combat ended, we've had, on average, one combat death every other day. Sad, but not a catastrophe by any means.
Salam Pax is a whiny son of the former regime. All he is he owes to Saddam, and no one should ever forget that his family's prosperity was only due to their support of the Tikrit thugocracy and its criminal enterprises. That last strike to get Saddam just before Baghdad fell took place one street over from his house.
Posted by: Chuck | September 2, 2003 04:39 PM
While dictatorships aren't happy places, despite years of bombing, war and sanctions, Iraq functioned. The government doled, electricity worked, water poured, oil welled, cities functioned, criminals (sic) were in jail.
Dictatorships aren't necessarily malfunctioning, even some of the worst. You can look at countries with the worst kinds of human rights violations on the planet and still see reasonable economies and far from anarchy. China, for example, has never been known to be an especially open country. Columbia still has millions of educated and thriving (in a Latin context) people.
Our Iraq "Liberation" is about further forcing a US-dominant position in the globe - and Saddam provided a unique opportunity for us in a crucial region, one that happened to be saddled with a whole lotta years of bad mojo -- which we're apparently badly attempting to exploit. See: Britain's attempts.
Historical, yeah, arguable, maybe, costly, hell yeah, dangerous and with a lotta predictable bad roads, oh yeah. This admin has a plan and has had a plan -- written and driven by guys not known for finesse, diplomacy or inclusion. Tough team to place a bet on given the situation analysis that'd been going on for many years.
With as many radical factions competing for their pieces, the wrong team is attempting to use the same methods that got us to this point -- they're not capable of finishing work. These guys are demo experts. It's like we're expecting the same guys we hire for clearing land to handle the landscaping, plumbing and finish the house. The bulldozers are trying to build. Not... very...prudent.
Posted by: paulie | September 2, 2003 05:49 PM
Chuck, every point you make is well worth making...still, it's difficult to maintain optimism in the face of constant bombardment with news masquerading as knowledge...
Mussolini would be proud.
Posted by: --iaw | September 3, 2003 10:48 AM
Before we intervened in Iraq, the situation in the Middle East was unsustainable and headed for a major blowup. I did business there in the later 1980s and it was clear even then that the whole thing was going to blow up, taking us with it, or collapse, one or the other.
Iraq under Hussein, Saudi Arabia under the Saud family, these countries and others have been "functional" the way an overheated radiator is before it ruptures. More broadly, much of the Moslem world is in this situation. What the Clinton administration did, and Europe is doing, is to close their eyes and hope it will all go away. But I was flying to that region in 1987 and remember the terrorist hijackings and the airport bombings that were happening even then ... mostly Palestinians that time around.
So: Iraq may have looked "stable", the MidEast situation may have looked "better" than right now, but in fact it was only going to get worse and worse over time. The murderous intent of the Islamacists, funded by Saudi and other oil money, guaranteed that.
SOMETHING had to be done to begin changing the situation ... not just dealing with the al Qaeda terror network, and related groups (Hussein funded at the least Palestinian groups and credibly also gave logistical, financial and technology support to e.g. Ansar al Islam) ... but also dealing with the broader issue, i.e. the fact that Arab countries by and large have gotten themselves in such a miserable situation that a major change is needed if we are not all to find ourselves under constant attack.
That "something" is to help one major country ... with a fairly educated, diverse population, oil resources, fertile land ... forge a secular, representative government and a civil society. To show that it can be done ... and to host a US force that provides stability to the region.
This will take years, not months or weeks. And there is no roadmap one can realistically draw up ahead of time, beyond some preliminary planning. What CAN be done is to organize ourselves so that we learn quickly and respond well to events as they unfold, shaping them when we can and otherwise adapting.
I think we're doing a reasonable job of that. None of us realized just how demoralized Iraqis were. I've been following the area for years & I certainly had no clue just how extensive the torture & brutality were, for instance. Iraqis will take time to emerge from their passivity & to overcome shortsighted rivalries and power grabs. We can and must provide stability during that process to the degree we can.
I used to do some "business process reengineering" for a living. The sort of increasingly organized resistance we see in Iraq had its parallels within businesses. Once people figured out that in fact the changes WERE going to happen, all sorts of ambushes & sabotage would heat up, especially at first as the inevitable uncertainties were being dealt with. A pretty predictable dynamic.
That's not to say that the Bush administration is doing everything well. But by and large, reports from the troops on the ground are far better than those of the big media, most of whom have little appreciation of history & in some cases see events through a political bias against intervention in the first place.
Patience. Be vigilant, hold the administration accountable but support the efforts we're making --- the opposition is very aware that a presidential election will heat up soon & they will continue to try to give the impression that things are falling apart. The reality is that Iraquis with our help are slowly knitting a civil society there for the first time in decades. And that will contribute to OUR security in the future. For that very reason, in the short run we can expect attempts to disrupt our efforts, to run us off, to cause us to withdraw. We must NOT allow them to do so ... there is too much at stake for us and for the whole world.
Posted by: rkb | September 3, 2003 12:49 PM
"That "something" is to help one major country ... with a fairly educated, diverse population, oil resources, fertile land ... forge a secular, representative government and a civil society. To show that it can be done ... and to host a US force that provides stability to the region."
An expression of ideals and objectives that we can perhaps all agree on, and worth having patience with.
I look at the word "help'- and wonder as I try and observe the workings...reported on by a lot more sources of all ilks than just big media....IS this the objective of those planning and "helping"? If so it wears an unusal cloak where in any reasonable view we become the fortunate benefactors.
We can not expect to succeed in the world political arena by being more volatile than anyone else in the game of combustion. We will succeed only as we represent a rallying center in the world for a less hazardous and more sensible future for all people. Our energies will have a far greater effect, it seems to me, if we apply them to the possibilities for human progress than domination and balance of power strategies.
Posted by: paulie | September 3, 2003 01:40 PM
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